LUCKY SKILLED - Are Hyperliquid's Top Traders Skilled or Just Lucky?

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Trader	All-time profit	Account now	Active	Return / 2 wk	Swing / 2 wk	Worst drop	Luck probability	After the crowd	Flags	Verdict

How to read the table

Record: Perps only is the trading record: perpetual futures and nothing else. The verdicts and counts above use it. Whole account counts everything in the account, the way the leaderboard ranks it. Hyperliquid's profit figure for a whole account also counts coins created in it, like a new token's launch allocation, and coins it holds rising in price. Many of the leaderboard's biggest winners are token holders, not traders.
Group: Biggest winners are the largest all-time profits on the leaderboard. Active traders are the largest profits among accounts that traded 5 to 200 times their profit, the volume of someone who trades rather than holds. An account can be in both.
Active: how long the account had $1,000 or more at work. Time it sat empty does not count.
Return / 2 wk and Swing / 2 wk: the average return over a two-week period, and how much those periods swing up and down. Money paid in or taken out never counts as profit. When an account takes out more in one period than it started with, the profit came first, so we count the money as leaving at the end of that period. An account can lose money overall and still show a high average here: big percentage gains on a small balance, then losses once the balance was large.
Worst drop: the deepest fall from a high point anywhere in the record.
Luck probability: how likely a trader with no skill at all would be to post a record this good. Lower is better.
After the crowd: the same chance, corrected because we are looking at a whole leaderboard of traders, and some will look good by luck alone. Under 10% here passes the test: the verdict reads Skilled. Everything else reads Lucky.
Too short to tell: fewer than six two-week periods with $1,000 or more at work. Most accounts here with too little perps record hardly trade perps at all.
Mostly outside perps: perps made less than half of the all-time profit. The rest came from elsewhere in the account, such as coins held or traded on spot, so the perps record covers only part of the money.
Never down: the account was trading and not one two-week period lost money. Fee income, rebates and selling insurance look like this, so a record like this may not be trading skill at all.
Smooth record: very small ups and downs. It can be skill, but selling insurance looks the same until the day it pays out.
Huge volume: the account traded more than 200 times its all-time profit. Market makers look like this: they earn a small edge on enormous volume. Their positions are not bets you can copy.
Empty since: under $1,000 left in the record shown (the perps account, or the whole account), and the date it was first seen that way. Hyperliquid keeps older history a week or two apart, so the money may have left up to two weeks before that date. A verdict on an empty account is about its past.
Not checked: big traders spread money over several sub-accounts. We add them all up, the way the leaderboard does, and check our total profit against the leaderboard's, for the perps record and the whole account separately. A record that doesn't match Hyperliquid's own total shows no profit, no return and no verdict. The other record of the same account is still tested if it matches.

A record, not a forecast

Passing the test means the record is hard to explain by chance, not that it will keep going. A big total is not a pass either: one lucky bet can make $100M.

Beats zero, not the market

The test asks whether a record beats zero. Holding coins in a rising market does that with no skill at all, which is why the verdicts use the perps record. A perps trader who simply stays long can still ride the market.

What the test assumes

Each two-week period is treated as independent, which flatters very risky strategies. Hyperliquid keeps older history a week or two apart, so when money moved inside one of those gaps we don't always know when. For the accounts closest to passing, we take the times from Hyperliquid's own record of each deposit, withdrawal and transfer.