LUCK SCREEN - Is That Vault Skill or Luck?

You're seeing the largest vaults. Every vault, with every flag and verdict, comes with a plan.

See the plans Members: open the full version

Skill or luck?

Before you copy a vault, know what you're copying. A high APR is easy to find and hard to trust, so we test every open vault with $10k or more: could a strategy with no skill at all have posted this record by chance? Most could. A few can't be explained that way.

What's a vault? Hyperliquid is a crypto exchange where every trade is public. A vault there is a trading account anyone can put money into: a trader runs it and takes a share of the profits, and everyone in it wins or loses together.

The whole populationopen and closed vaults

Every screened vault

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Vault	Size	Age	Return / yr	Volatility / yr	Luck probability	After the crowd	Flags	Verdict

How to read the table

Luck probability: how likely a trader with no skill at all would be to post a record this good. Lower is better; under 5% is hard to put down to luck.
After the crowd: the same chance, adjusted because we test hundreds of vaults at once, and some will look good by luck alone.
Martingale: the vault keeps adding to losing trades with bigger size. It looks smooth until one move wipes it out.
Smooth record: very small ups and downs. It can be skill, but it is also what selling insurance looks like: quiet until it isn't.

A record, not a forecast

Passing the test means the record is hard to explain by chance, not that it will keep going.

Smooth can hide a tail

Averaging down and selling volatility look calm until the one move that ends them. We flag what a vault's own trades show.

What the test assumes

Each period is treated as independent, which flatters very risky strategies. Deposits and withdrawals are taken out of the returns.